The Sixers Dreadful Andrew Bynum Trade
The Philadelphia 76ers made the playoffs last year, beat the Chicago Bulls in the first round, and took the Celtics deep before losing to a very fine Celtics team. In doing so, the Sixers made all of Philadelphia, and indeed, all of the NBA, feel that the Sixers were really back as a team.
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| DOUG COLLINS IS THE SIXERS COACH |
This year, the Sixers have been successful on occasion, but they are a few games out of the hunt for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. They have had several positive development--Jrue Holiday has developed into a terrific point guard and an excellent scorer, and Even Turner has become one of the best defenders and rebounders.
But the top Sixers this year in terms of Win Shares ("WS") are Thaddeus Young, Jrue Holiday, Dorrell Wright and Spencer Hawes, and but for Young at 4.6 WS, all of them are around 2+ WS. Nick Young and Evan Turner are close to 2 WS. Jason Richardson had 1.5 WS in 33G, but he's gone with injury for the season. He'd be around 2 WS if he'd been playing. So what you have is one leader, Thad Young, and then seven players who are at or were on pace to get around 2.5-3 WS for the season. A lot of depth but no stars.
The Awful Andrew Bynum Trade
The Andrew Bynum Trade has been a disaster. The Sixers traded Maurice Harkless, Nik Vukevic, Andre Iguodala for Andrew Bynum and Jason Richardson.
So far, Jason Richardson has contributed 1.5 WS in 33 G. He got hurt and won't play anymore this season. Bynum has not played at all due to injury. Worse, he appears not to really want to play. He goes bowling and seems to be able to do just about anything except play hoops. He has a bad attitude.
On the other side of the ledger, Iguodala has not had the season he had last year, but so far this year has accumulated 3.2 WS in 51 G, and .081 WS/48 minutes. So the new AI is on pace for @ 3.5-4 WS. That would probably lead the Sixers.
Maurice Harkless has accumulated 1.3 WS in 44 G, .076 WS/48M, so he seems a lot like the seven Sixers on pace to get near 1.5-2 WS. He'd of been a useful big body, and since he's just a rookie, his upside is high, and his cost is low.
Finally, Nik Vukevic. He was shipped off to the Orlando Magic. Vukevic has accumulated 4.3 WS in 50 G, and .126 WS/48M, and become one of the best rebounders in the game. Right now, he's a much better player than Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum, and he's only a second year player with total upside and low cost. Vuke is on pace for a 5.0 WS season.
So the total cost of the Bynum trade was huge--4 WS from AI, 5 WS from Vuke, and 2 WS from Harkless---10-11 wins lost from the Sixers total--versus 1.5 WS from Jason Richardson, who's done for the year, and none from Andrew Bynum, who looks like he's never going to play a single game for the Sixers.
Right now, this nets out to minus 9.5 WS for the Sixers, just on this trade for this year, not counting the future lost WS from Vuke and Harkless, who will be good for years to come. It still means the Sixers are down 9.5 wins just on this trade alone.
Now Bynum could still salvage some of this. Bynum in 2007-08, in just 35 games, accumulated nearly 5 WS for the Lakers at a pace of .230 WS/48M, although his career numbers suggest a more likely scenario of @ 3 WS in 30 G and @ .175 WS/48M. That would somewhat mitigate the Sixers' losses on the trade, but it would still net out to minus 6.5 WS on the season.
The Future
If you are the Sixers' Management, there is no way you sign Andrew Bynum to a long term deal. He is a free agent at the end of this year. Let Bynum walk. He's frequently injured, and unlike guys like Elton Brand, who played hurt a lot the past few years, Bynum seems to have the attitude that if he's got a hangnail, he's not playing. Guys like him, no team needs. The salary cap room would be better spent on warriors with less talent and more willingness to give of themselves for the team.
Other Off Season Mistakes
The Sixers WS leaders last year were Andre Iguodala, Thad Young, Elton Brand, Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday. AI we already discussed. Thad Young and Jrue Holiday are still here. However, Elton Brand was let go as a free agent as was Lou Williams. Were these wise decisions?
Elton Brand is with Dallas. While not playing the way he did last year, Elton Brand has accumulated 2.1 WS in 46G at a clip of .101 WS/48M. He's on pace to get 2.5 WS for the year, and that's playing pretty much part time. His WS rate per 48M is very good. He could definitely have helped the Sixers this year, both on defense and rebounding, and also scoring in the low post.
Lou Williams signed as a free agent with the Atlanta Hawks for @ the same $5 million a year he was getting with the Sixers. Lou Williams was a 2 guard who scored a ton of points last year coming off the bench as well as starting. For Atlanta, in just 39 G before getting hurt, tearing his ACL and being done for the year, Lou accumulated 2.5 WS at a clip of .109 WS/48M. Had he not been hurt, he was on pace to get 5 or more WS this year. Lou had 6.1 WS for last years' Sixers team, and it's not obvious that anyone on the Sixers has stepped up as a #2 guard with anywhere near the talent of Lou Williams, nor can anyone safely say that anyone as talented as Lou Williams would have cost but $5 million a year.
So was letting Elton Brand and Lou Williams go a mistake? Between them, 5.0 WS for the year, and even with Lou Williams getting hurt, Lou would have given the Sixers a lot of scoring in the first 39 G as well as 2.5 WS. Those are wins as well as scoring.
The Bigger Picture
Last years Sixers scored 103.9 ppg, 20th of 30 in the NBA, but only allowed 99.2 ppg, 3d best in the NBA. They were one of the very best defensive teams in the NBA. They played shutdown defense, largely due to players like AI, Elton Brand, et al. Even Vuke had a WS last year, and Lou Williams had 2.2 defensive WS of his 6.1 total, so Sweet Lou could play D.
This year, the Sixers are scoring 92.3 ppg, 29th of 30th in the NBA. Defensively, they are allowing 95.5 ppg, 7th of 30 in the NBA. So defensively, they are worse than last year, and offensively, they have totally cratered. Only the awful Washington Wizards score fewer points at 91.4 ppg than the Sixers.
Last season, the Sixers had the fifth best SRS in the NBA, and had an expected record of 43-23, even though their actual record was 35-31, so they performed 8 games below what their stats would have predicted.
This season, the Sixers have an SRS which is 24th of 30th in the NBA, near the bottom of the league, and their expected won loss record is 19-31, which is actually worse than their actual record of 22-28, so their stats suggest that the Sixers are WORSE than their actual record.
Doug Collins is a terrific coach, but even he can't overcome the horrible mistakes of management this past offseason in the Andrew Bynum trade, and in letting Elton Brand and Lou Williams walk as free agents. Total, these moves cost the Sixers at least 15 WS, or @ 15 total wins on the season, and they have recouped next to nothing for them.
Some Past Bad Moves by the Sixers
The Sixers have in the past let some young players go that would have been helpful to them now. These include John Salmons, a 6'7" guard who can also play forward, who has put up huge offensive numbers as well as playing fine defense, from 2006-present, and put up a lot of WSs per season. Kyle Korver, a very tall shooting guard/forward and 3 point shooting specialist, who since 2007-08 has plyed his trade with other teams, peaking at 5.1, 5.3 and 4.3 WS the past three seasons, marked by pinpoint three point accuracy, stellar defense, and excellent hoops skils, not to mention his Ashton Kutcher lookalike face. Andre Miller, who the Sixers obtained in trade for Iverson, was allowed to leave as a free agent after 2008, and all Miller did was register consecutive 7.0 WS seasons while playing 82 games for the Portland Trailblazers, and then returning to Denver, where even in a diminished role, he's put up 2.9 WS seasons in 82 and 59 G. Andre Miller is one of the best point guards in the game, and he never misses games. Why was he let go? This is a mystery to anyone. Finally, Sammy D'Alembert, who played 82 G in a seasons for four consecutive years for the Sixers, was traded for Spencer Hawes a couple of years back--but D'Alembert is still putting up pretty good defensive numbers and WS numbers, and can still play all the games. Hawes is good, but he has injury issues and one can question this move as well.
CONCLUSION
Obviously the Sixers could not carry all of these players on their roster at once, nor could they pay them all, given the salary cap. Nonetheless, Kyle Korver and his three point skills and defense could have been used the past few years. John Salmons' defense, scoring and rebounding is not much different than Evan Turner, except Salmons is better at scoring. Andre Miller, even at age 37, is still among the best point guards around. It was premature to cut him loose. Elton Brand and Lou Williams still had plenty of hoops left in them. Andre Iguodala was far from done. If all of these players had been kept--the Sixers would be a far better team, defensively and offensively, than they are now.
Finally, the trading away of young talent like Harkless and Vukevic--tall big men who were YOUNG for an old big man like Bynum, who has a history of injury and questionable desire to win or play hard--well, this has to be questioned. If the Sixers are rebuilding, they should go young. If they are going with veterans, why are they releasing and trading away established stars like Brand, AI and Lou Williams? When you look at the totality of it all, the strategy makes no sense and could have been predicted to fail.
At the end of the day, you can't win in this league with small guards. The Iverson experiment proved this. Guys like Korver and Salmons, with their size, can guard as well as score. They can also swing to forward and help create mismatches. Evan Turner is the closest the Sixers have to such players, and yet the rumors flying out of the Sixers is that they now want to trade Turner, even though he is the Sixer with the greatest upside.
The Sixers need to stop thinking about superstars, and start thinking in terms of win shares and winning as a team. It's enough to have a good team and make the playoffs. Stars can develop within a team concept, and it's getting awfully tiring to watch ex-Sixers like Salmons, Vukevic, Korver, Miller et al. blossom into stardom with other teams while the Sixers continue to struggle. Doug Collins is a terrific coach, but Sixers ownership and management needs to start thinking in terms of the statistics of winning and not in terms of star power or who draws fans.
Art Kyriazis, Philly
But the top Sixers this year in terms of Win Shares ("WS") are Thaddeus Young, Jrue Holiday, Dorrell Wright and Spencer Hawes, and but for Young at 4.6 WS, all of them are around 2+ WS. Nick Young and Evan Turner are close to 2 WS. Jason Richardson had 1.5 WS in 33G, but he's gone with injury for the season. He'd be around 2 WS if he'd been playing. So what you have is one leader, Thad Young, and then seven players who are at or were on pace to get around 2.5-3 WS for the season. A lot of depth but no stars.
The Awful Andrew Bynum Trade
The Andrew Bynum Trade has been a disaster. The Sixers traded Maurice Harkless, Nik Vukevic, Andre Iguodala for Andrew Bynum and Jason Richardson.
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| NIK VUKEVIC HAS BECOME A STAR FOR ORLANDO SINCE BEING CARELESSLY TRADED AWAY BY THE SIXERS IN THE ANDREW BYNUM DEAL. RIGHT NOW HE IS BETTER THAN BYNUM OR DWIGHT HOWARD. |
So far, Jason Richardson has contributed 1.5 WS in 33 G. He got hurt and won't play anymore this season. Bynum has not played at all due to injury. Worse, he appears not to really want to play. He goes bowling and seems to be able to do just about anything except play hoops. He has a bad attitude.
On the other side of the ledger, Iguodala has not had the season he had last year, but so far this year has accumulated 3.2 WS in 51 G, and .081 WS/48 minutes. So the new AI is on pace for @ 3.5-4 WS. That would probably lead the Sixers.
Maurice Harkless has accumulated 1.3 WS in 44 G, .076 WS/48M, so he seems a lot like the seven Sixers on pace to get near 1.5-2 WS. He'd of been a useful big body, and since he's just a rookie, his upside is high, and his cost is low.
Finally, Nik Vukevic. He was shipped off to the Orlando Magic. Vukevic has accumulated 4.3 WS in 50 G, and .126 WS/48M, and become one of the best rebounders in the game. Right now, he's a much better player than Dwight Howard or Andrew Bynum, and he's only a second year player with total upside and low cost. Vuke is on pace for a 5.0 WS season.
So the total cost of the Bynum trade was huge--4 WS from AI, 5 WS from Vuke, and 2 WS from Harkless---10-11 wins lost from the Sixers total--versus 1.5 WS from Jason Richardson, who's done for the year, and none from Andrew Bynum, who looks like he's never going to play a single game for the Sixers.
Right now, this nets out to minus 9.5 WS for the Sixers, just on this trade for this year, not counting the future lost WS from Vuke and Harkless, who will be good for years to come. It still means the Sixers are down 9.5 wins just on this trade alone.
Now Bynum could still salvage some of this. Bynum in 2007-08, in just 35 games, accumulated nearly 5 WS for the Lakers at a pace of .230 WS/48M, although his career numbers suggest a more likely scenario of @ 3 WS in 30 G and @ .175 WS/48M. That would somewhat mitigate the Sixers' losses on the trade, but it would still net out to minus 6.5 WS on the season.
The Future
If you are the Sixers' Management, there is no way you sign Andrew Bynum to a long term deal. He is a free agent at the end of this year. Let Bynum walk. He's frequently injured, and unlike guys like Elton Brand, who played hurt a lot the past few years, Bynum seems to have the attitude that if he's got a hangnail, he's not playing. Guys like him, no team needs. The salary cap room would be better spent on warriors with less talent and more willingness to give of themselves for the team.
Other Off Season Mistakes
The Sixers WS leaders last year were Andre Iguodala, Thad Young, Elton Brand, Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday. AI we already discussed. Thad Young and Jrue Holiday are still here. However, Elton Brand was let go as a free agent as was Lou Williams. Were these wise decisions?
Elton Brand is with Dallas. While not playing the way he did last year, Elton Brand has accumulated 2.1 WS in 46G at a clip of .101 WS/48M. He's on pace to get 2.5 WS for the year, and that's playing pretty much part time. His WS rate per 48M is very good. He could definitely have helped the Sixers this year, both on defense and rebounding, and also scoring in the low post.
Lou Williams signed as a free agent with the Atlanta Hawks for @ the same $5 million a year he was getting with the Sixers. Lou Williams was a 2 guard who scored a ton of points last year coming off the bench as well as starting. For Atlanta, in just 39 G before getting hurt, tearing his ACL and being done for the year, Lou accumulated 2.5 WS at a clip of .109 WS/48M. Had he not been hurt, he was on pace to get 5 or more WS this year. Lou had 6.1 WS for last years' Sixers team, and it's not obvious that anyone on the Sixers has stepped up as a #2 guard with anywhere near the talent of Lou Williams, nor can anyone safely say that anyone as talented as Lou Williams would have cost but $5 million a year.
So was letting Elton Brand and Lou Williams go a mistake? Between them, 5.0 WS for the year, and even with Lou Williams getting hurt, Lou would have given the Sixers a lot of scoring in the first 39 G as well as 2.5 WS. Those are wins as well as scoring.
The Bigger Picture
Last years Sixers scored 103.9 ppg, 20th of 30 in the NBA, but only allowed 99.2 ppg, 3d best in the NBA. They were one of the very best defensive teams in the NBA. They played shutdown defense, largely due to players like AI, Elton Brand, et al. Even Vuke had a WS last year, and Lou Williams had 2.2 defensive WS of his 6.1 total, so Sweet Lou could play D.
This year, the Sixers are scoring 92.3 ppg, 29th of 30th in the NBA. Defensively, they are allowing 95.5 ppg, 7th of 30 in the NBA. So defensively, they are worse than last year, and offensively, they have totally cratered. Only the awful Washington Wizards score fewer points at 91.4 ppg than the Sixers.
Last season, the Sixers had the fifth best SRS in the NBA, and had an expected record of 43-23, even though their actual record was 35-31, so they performed 8 games below what their stats would have predicted.
This season, the Sixers have an SRS which is 24th of 30th in the NBA, near the bottom of the league, and their expected won loss record is 19-31, which is actually worse than their actual record of 22-28, so their stats suggest that the Sixers are WORSE than their actual record.
Doug Collins is a terrific coach, but even he can't overcome the horrible mistakes of management this past offseason in the Andrew Bynum trade, and in letting Elton Brand and Lou Williams walk as free agents. Total, these moves cost the Sixers at least 15 WS, or @ 15 total wins on the season, and they have recouped next to nothing for them.
Some Past Bad Moves by the Sixers
The Sixers have in the past let some young players go that would have been helpful to them now. These include John Salmons, a 6'7" guard who can also play forward, who has put up huge offensive numbers as well as playing fine defense, from 2006-present, and put up a lot of WSs per season. Kyle Korver, a very tall shooting guard/forward and 3 point shooting specialist, who since 2007-08 has plyed his trade with other teams, peaking at 5.1, 5.3 and 4.3 WS the past three seasons, marked by pinpoint three point accuracy, stellar defense, and excellent hoops skils, not to mention his Ashton Kutcher lookalike face. Andre Miller, who the Sixers obtained in trade for Iverson, was allowed to leave as a free agent after 2008, and all Miller did was register consecutive 7.0 WS seasons while playing 82 games for the Portland Trailblazers, and then returning to Denver, where even in a diminished role, he's put up 2.9 WS seasons in 82 and 59 G. Andre Miller is one of the best point guards in the game, and he never misses games. Why was he let go? This is a mystery to anyone. Finally, Sammy D'Alembert, who played 82 G in a seasons for four consecutive years for the Sixers, was traded for Spencer Hawes a couple of years back--but D'Alembert is still putting up pretty good defensive numbers and WS numbers, and can still play all the games. Hawes is good, but he has injury issues and one can question this move as well.
CONCLUSION
Obviously the Sixers could not carry all of these players on their roster at once, nor could they pay them all, given the salary cap. Nonetheless, Kyle Korver and his three point skills and defense could have been used the past few years. John Salmons' defense, scoring and rebounding is not much different than Evan Turner, except Salmons is better at scoring. Andre Miller, even at age 37, is still among the best point guards around. It was premature to cut him loose. Elton Brand and Lou Williams still had plenty of hoops left in them. Andre Iguodala was far from done. If all of these players had been kept--the Sixers would be a far better team, defensively and offensively, than they are now.
Finally, the trading away of young talent like Harkless and Vukevic--tall big men who were YOUNG for an old big man like Bynum, who has a history of injury and questionable desire to win or play hard--well, this has to be questioned. If the Sixers are rebuilding, they should go young. If they are going with veterans, why are they releasing and trading away established stars like Brand, AI and Lou Williams? When you look at the totality of it all, the strategy makes no sense and could have been predicted to fail.
At the end of the day, you can't win in this league with small guards. The Iverson experiment proved this. Guys like Korver and Salmons, with their size, can guard as well as score. They can also swing to forward and help create mismatches. Evan Turner is the closest the Sixers have to such players, and yet the rumors flying out of the Sixers is that they now want to trade Turner, even though he is the Sixer with the greatest upside.
The Sixers need to stop thinking about superstars, and start thinking in terms of win shares and winning as a team. It's enough to have a good team and make the playoffs. Stars can develop within a team concept, and it's getting awfully tiring to watch ex-Sixers like Salmons, Vukevic, Korver, Miller et al. blossom into stardom with other teams while the Sixers continue to struggle. Doug Collins is a terrific coach, but Sixers ownership and management needs to start thinking in terms of the statistics of winning and not in terms of star power or who draws fans.
Art Kyriazis, Philly
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