Harbaugh v. Harbaugh - Ravens v. 49ers in Super Bowl 47

Harbaugh v. Harbaugh - Ravens v. 49ers in Super Bowl 47

Last Weeks Picks

Well, you hate to toot your own horn, but both the Niners and the Ravens were road dogs last weekend, and the Ravens were HUGE road dogs.

Nonetheless, yours truly went out on a huge limb and picked both the Niners and the Ravens to win last weekend.  We said that the Niners would win despite their weakness at kicker (David Akers did miss a critical field goal) because they were slightly stronger on defense than the Falcons, and they showed this by shutting down the Falcons completely in the second half.  We also said that the Ravens and Ray Lewis were going to shut down New England based on their prior matchups, and that Baltimore was the one team in the league that New England hated to play, especially in the playoffs.  While that game was close in the first half, in the second half Baltimore not only shut the Pats down, they pulled away and it was not very close at all in the final analysis.  

This now makes our post season picks 3-1 wild card weekend, 3-1 divisional weekend, and 2-0 NFC/AFC championship weekend, for an overall record of 8-2 to date.  

If you weight it by round, it goes something like this:

wild card 1 point   3-1 3 - 1  

 3 -  1 total

divisional 3 points  3-1 9 - 3 

12 - 4 total

AFC/NFC 5 points 2-0 10-0 

22 - 4 total.

Anyway you cut it, we're doing pretty good.  

So good, we may never try this again.

Win, we're 9-2, lose we're 8-3, so at this point we're playing with house money in the "HarBowl" of Harbaugh v. Harbaugh.  

John Harbaugh was a Special Teams Coach for years with the Philadelphia Eagles and Coach Andy Reid.  It's too bad that Owner Jeffrey Lurie didn't hire John Harbaugh as our Head Coach back in 2008 since that's about the time Reid started going downhill and John Harbaugh became the best coach in the NFL.  Also, John Harbaugh only needs to buy one seat when he flies coach on a commercial flight.  When Andy Reid sits around the house, he sits around the house.

  

Super Bowl Pick

Let's start with the stats.  These two teams scored approximately the same number of points, but SF allowed fewer points.  Balanced against that is the obvious fact that the Niners played in a ridiculously easier division and against a much easier schedule than did the Ravens, and that the Niners clearly had a much easier path to the Super Bowl than did the Ravens.

The Ravens play in the AFC North, one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, plus they had as their interdivisional scheduled rival this year, the NFC East, which meant they also had to play the Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins and NY Giants on top of playing the Steelers and Bengals twice each, and having the Pats on their schedule as well.  The Ravens lost to the Eagles early, to the Bengals, the Steelers, the Texans and the Broncos.  Except for the Eagles and Steelers, those were all playoff teams, and the Eagles and Steelers have been in the playoffs most of the past few years, plus Ray Lewis was hurt during those losses.

The Ravens in getting to the Super Bowl have beaten the Colts at home, Denver on the road, and the Pats on the road.  In doing so they became the first team since the 2010 NY Jets to defeat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the same set of playoffs to get to the Super Bowl.  

The 49ers are not shabby by any means.  They lost to the Rams, and tied the Rams, and lost to the NY Giants, the Vikings and the Seahawks.  The Rams were actually in the hunt most of the year, and so were the Giants, and the Vikings and the Seahawks were legit playoff teams.  In getting to the Super Bowl, the 49ers won very tough games against the Packers at home and against the top seeded Atlanta Falcons on the road, coming back from 17 points down to beat Atlanta 28-24.

Our pick here is BALTIMORE RAVENS.

This rests on three principal factors.

First, the coaches.  While Jim and John Harbaugh are brothers, the similarities sort of end there.  John Harbaugh has been coaching in the NFL since the 1990s.  He was a special teams coach with the Eagles and worked for Ray Rhodes before he worked with Andy Reid.  Ray Rhodes, in case people forget, was a defensive minded coach who got to the playoffs and once beat Detroit something like 50-0 in a playoff game.  We once played behind Ray's group in the annual scramble tournament on one of Ron Jaworski's courses for the Maxwell Club charity golf tourney, and Ray was just as intense about golf as he was about coaching, scowling about missing putts.   Ray Rhodes was the defensive coordinator for the 1994 SF 49ers who won the Super Bowl with Steve Young, and that team was among the league leaders in team defense; and then Rhodes went 10-6 his first two years with the Eagles.  Among the brilliant minds Rhodes hired was Jon Gruden as his offensive coordinator, and John Harbaugh as his special teams coach.  You can't really blame Ray Rhodes for his last couple of years in Philly when he was forced to play guys like Ty Detmer and Bobby Hoying at QB, who were pretty dreadful, especially Hoying, who can only remind you of Nick Foles and vice versa in his all around terrible play and simple inability to see what's going on in an NFL game, although one could be wrong about Foles, it does not seem likely he will ever be a very good NFL QB.

John Harbaugh since leaving the Eagles nest for the Ravens nest, has been the single most impressive coach in the NFL since  2008.  He has always had a winning record, he has never missed the playoffs, and he has an 8-4 overall playoff record in that time period.  

By comparison, Bill Belichick of the NE Pats, missed the playoffs in 2008, and has been 3-4 in the playoffs the other years he actually made it.  Advantage:  Harbaugh over Belichick.  When you include last weekends smackdown of the Pats by Harbaugh's Ravens, well, you get the idea.  

Fact is, there has been a huge changing of the guard in the NFL; John Harbaugh is now the best coach in the NFL.  

Baltimore Ravens Coach John Harbaugh after pummeling the NE Patriots to win the AFC Championship

What has eluded John Harbaugh to date is what Tom Coughlin and others have:  the Super Bowl Championship. (To be fair, Coughlin has won twice, but then again, he has Eli Manning). John Harbaugh burns with a desire to win the Super Bowl, and the rest of his team burns to win it as well.

If any other coach in the league had Joe Flacco as his QB, would they be 8-4 in the playoffs?  See?  John Harbaugh is a genius.  It's easy to win if your QB is Tom Brady.  But winning with Joe Flacco is a whole other deal.  That takes SKILL.

Jim Harbaugh, his brother, came to coaching a very different way.  Jim was a player, a star QB who played for the Bears.  Jim has a twitter account, John doesn't.  Jim worked at Stanford and now at the Niners; John works in blue collar Baltimore, which is pretty much like lunch pail Philly.  Jim is used to being the star QB; John is the Xs and Os guy.  And John is your typical older brother: he is OCD to a fault, while Jim is your younger brother who has fun.  

Bears Coach Mike Ditka with a young QB Jim Harbaugh back in the day.  Mike Ditka once played tight end for the Eagles.  I'm not saying Ditka is tough, but he'd probably go 15 rounds with a drunk Cossack.

First, let's look at Jim's playing record.  Jim never was a great player, but he had some good years, particularly 1990 and 91 with the Bears, and 1995 with the Colts.  He was still playing as late as 2000.  Some of the QBs who are comparable to Harbaugh career are guys like Jeff Hostetler, Craig Morton, Joe Ferguson and Norm Snead--guys who played a long time, won some of the time, but don't stand out as first rank guys.  But Jim was definitely an NFL QB and knew a lot from playing.

Now let's look at Jim's coaching record.  First of all, somehow from 1994-2001, while being an NFL QB, he's also an ass't coach at Western Kentucky.  Not sure how he did this, but there it is.  In 2002 and 2003 he was the QB coach for the Oakland Raiders.   He coached U Delaware's Rich Gannon both years, the first year to a 12-4 mark, the second year to a brutal 4-12 mark, though to be fair, by 2003 Gannon was 38 years old and had reached the end of the line.  

Jim Harbaugh then went to UCSD for three years to coach football.  Some people say that's a surfing school, but I happen to know they have a decent Bio department.  I'm not sure about their football program but hey, it's sunny most of the time.   And hey, it's in La Jolla.  

The Symbol of Stanford University, the "Harvard of the West"

After this, Harbaugh got to the big time and became the coach of the Stanford Cardinal for four years, where he didn't have a winning season for two years (though he did manage to beat USC) but went 8-4 and got a bowl bid in 2009, and then went 11-1 in 2010, losing only to Oregon and new Eagles' coach Chip Kelly.  It is of interest that Harbaugh used to outcoach Pete Carroll in college, when Carroll was at USC, and has continued to coach well against him in the NFC West now that Carroll is at Seattle.  

Jim Harbaugh as coach of the Stanford Cardinal.  Stanford is a lot like Harvard except they only have had one President, Herbert Hoover, and he kind of  was Jimmy Carter before Jimmy Carter.   Except we like Hoover's great-granddaughter on Fox, who's kind of hot, in a married, fair and balanced, sort of safe and conservative, way.   Smoking hot.  Actually, every girl at Stanford looks like Margaret Hoover.  Who went to Bryn Mawr, by the way, not Stanford.  That's in Philly.

Jim Harbaugh's two years as Niner's Head Coach have been unqualified successes.  He has gone 13-3 last year and 11-4-1 this year, and was 1-1 in the playoffs last year, losing the NFC title game, while this year he went 2-0 in the playoffs and won the NFC title game.  Another interesting point is that he was unafraid to bench his starting QB from a year ago, Alex Smith, in favor of Colin Kaepernick, an untested QB, this year, which was unconventional, but worked well.  

The Hoover Instituion - Named for Herbert Hoover, the only Stanford Grad to become United States President (1929-1933).  Widely considered to be the worst President in US History by most historians.  This is a landmark on Stanford's campus, along with their football stadium, at which the Grateful Dead used to play regularly.

However, on balance, the edge here has to go to the Ravens on coaching.  John Harbaugh has more years and more experience, and has gotten it done for a longer time than his very gifted and able brother.  Moreover, John has been coaching his team, the Ravens, for a long time, and the Ravens have veteran leaders who have played in big games, including Ray Lewis, who played in and won the Super Bowl at the beginning of the 2000 decade.  

Herbert Hoover's Great-Granddaughter Margaret Hoover, who is typical of the look of most Stanford coeds--blonde and intelligent--except she is a graduate of Bryn Mawr College outside Philadelphia.  

This brings us to the second reason for favoring the Ravens--QB and leadership.  Colin Kaepernick when he starts at QB in the Super Bowl will be starting with fewer games under his belt than all but two QBs in NFL history--only Jeff Hostetler for the Giants in 1990 and Vince Ferragamo for the Rams in 1979 had fewer games started than Kaepernick does at present, and Hostetler only won the game against the Bills due to a shanked FG at the end, as all loyal Bills fans know.  Ferragamo was not particularly effective.  Joe Flacco on the other hand, has been devastating in the post season, and is an experienced passer who specializes in delivering the downfield pass to experienced receivers.  

On leadership, the Ravens have Ray Lewis and many other defensive leaders who are experienced and battle tested from many playoff games--and while the Niners are a good team, they do not have the experience and the leadership of the Ravens.  

Finally, and this comes down to coaching philosophy and style of team.  Both teams are defensive, both teams have excellent running attacks, and both teams can pass the ball.  However, Baltimore has a classic drop back QB who specializes in delivering the ball downfield for maximum gain, while the SF QB is still in some sort of option/West Coast offense where he can choose to run, pass or pass it for medium to long yardage.  

Everything we know about offense in the NFL, and particularly about playoff games, tells us that the most effective offense is the one that maximizes one key stat, which is passing yards gained per completed pass.  Here, the two QBs are very close--Flacco averaged 12 yards per completion during the regular season, while Kaepernick averaged 13 ypc during the regular season.  Flacco did about this well against NE in the title game, while Kaepernick did around 15 ypc against the Falcons.  

However, Kaepernick will be throwing against Baltimore's defense, while Flacco will be throwing against the Niner's defense.  The Niner's defense was vulnerable to Matt Ryan while the Ravens' defense has excellent pass rushing and pass coverage.  Here the balance will tilt to the advantage of Flacco, who will throw downfield a few times rather than throwing many times and risking turnovers.  

Consequently, on balance, we have to favor the Ravens.

The MVP of Super Bowl 35 in 2000:  Ray Lewis.  The three time winner is Joe Montana;  the two time winners are Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Tom Brady & Eli Manning.  

Ray Lewis will retire a champion, and we think he will join the all-time list above of two time Super Bowl MVPs.  

Art Kyriazis, Philly.

Edgar Allan Poe

The Raven

[First published in 1845]

Once upon a midnight dreary, while I pondered weak and weary, Over many a quaint and curious volume of forgotten lore, While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping, As of some one gently rapping, rapping at my chamber door. `'Tis some visitor,' I muttered, `tapping at my chamber door - Only this, and nothing more.' Ah, distinctly I remember it was in the bleak December, And each separate dying ember wrought its ghost upon the floor. Eagerly I wished the morrow; - vainly I had sought to borrow From my books surcease of sorrow - sorrow for the lost Lenore - For the rare and radiant maiden whom the angels named Lenore - Nameless here for evermore. And the silken sad uncertain rustling of each purple curtain Thrilled me - filled me with fantastic terrors never felt before; So that now, to still the beating of my heart, I stood repeating `'Tis some visitor entreating entrance at my chamber door - Some late visitor entreating entrance at my chamber door; - This it is, and nothing more,' Presently my soul grew stronger; hesitating then no longer, `Sir,' said I, `or Madam, truly your forgiveness I implore; But the fact is I was napping, and so gently you came rapping, And so faintly you came tapping, tapping at my chamber door, That I scarce was sure I heard you' - here I opened wide the door; - Darkness there, and nothing more. Deep into that darkness peering, long I stood there wondering, fearing, Doubting, dreaming dreams no mortal ever dared to dream before; But the silence was unbroken, and the darkness gave no token, And the only word there spoken was the whispered word, `Lenore!' This I whispered, and an echo murmured back the word, `Lenore!' Merely this and nothing more. Back into the chamber turning, all my soul within me burning, Soon again I heard a tapping somewhat louder than before. `Surely,' said I, `surely that is something at my window lattice; Let me see then, what thereat is, and this mystery explore - Let my heart be still a moment and this mystery explore; - 'Tis the wind and nothing more!' Open here I flung the shutter, when, with many a flirt and flutter, In there stepped a stately raven of the saintly days of yore. Not the least obeisance made he; not a minute stopped or stayed he; But, with mien of lord or lady, perched above my chamber door - Perched upon a bust of Pallas just above my chamber door - Perched, and sat, and nothing more. Then this ebony bird beguiling my sad fancy into smiling, By the grave and stern decorum of the countenance it wore, `Though thy crest be shorn and shaven, thou,' I said, `art sure no craven. Ghastly grim and ancient raven wandering from the nightly shore - Tell me what thy lordly name is on the Night's Plutonian shore!' Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.' Much I marvelled this ungainly fowl to hear discourse so plainly, Though its answer little meaning - little relevancy bore; For we cannot help agreeing that no living human being Ever yet was blessed with seeing bird above his chamber door - Bird or beast above the sculptured bust above his chamber door, With such name as `Nevermore.' But the raven, sitting lonely on the placid bust, spoke only, That one word, as if his soul in that one word he did outpour. Nothing further then he uttered - not a feather then he fluttered - Till I scarcely more than muttered `Other friends have flown before - On the morrow he will leave me, as my hopes have flown before.' Then the bird said, `Nevermore.' Startled at the stillness broken by reply so aptly spoken, `Doubtless,' said I, `what it utters is its only stock and store, Caught from some unhappy master whom unmerciful disaster Followed fast and followed faster till his songs one burden bore - Till the dirges of his hope that melancholy burden bore Of "Never-nevermore."' But the raven still beguiling all my sad soul into smiling, Straight I wheeled a cushioned seat in front of bird and bust and door; Then, upon the velvet sinking, I betook myself to linking Fancy unto fancy, thinking what this ominous bird of yore - What this grim, ungainly, ghastly, gaunt, and ominous bird of yore Meant in croaking `Nevermore.' This I sat engaged in guessing, but no syllable expressing To the fowl whose fiery eyes now burned into my bosom's core; This and more I sat divining, with my head at ease reclining On the cushion's velvet lining that the lamp-light gloated o'er, But whose velvet violet lining with the lamp-light gloating o'er, She shall press, ah, nevermore! Then, methought, the air grew denser, perfumed from an unseen censer Swung by Seraphim whose foot-falls tinkled on the tufted floor. `Wretch,' I cried, `thy God hath lent thee - by these angels he has sent thee Respite - respite and nepenthe from thy memories of Lenore! Quaff, oh quaff this kind nepenthe, and forget this lost Lenore!' Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.' `Prophet!' said I, `thing of evil! - prophet still, if bird or devil! - Whether tempter sent, or whether tempest tossed thee here ashore, Desolate yet all undaunted, on this desert land enchanted - On this home by horror haunted - tell me truly, I implore - Is there - is there balm in Gilead? - tell me - tell me, I implore!' Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.' `Prophet!' said I, `thing of evil! - prophet still, if bird or devil! By that Heaven that bends above us - by that God we both adore - Tell this soul with sorrow laden if, within the distant Aidenn, It shall clasp a sainted maiden whom the angels named Lenore - Clasp a rare and radiant maiden, whom the angels named Lenore?' Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.' `Be that word our sign of parting, bird or fiend!' I shrieked upstarting - `Get thee back into the tempest and the Night's Plutonian shore! Leave no black plume as a token of that lie thy soul hath spoken! Leave my loneliness unbroken! - quit the bust above my door! Take thy beak from out my heart, and take thy form from off my door!' Quoth the raven, `Nevermore.' And the raven, never flitting, still is sitting, still is sitting On the pallid bust of Pallas just above my chamber door; And his eyes have all the seeming of a demon's that is dreaming, And the lamp-light o'er him streaming throws his shadow on the floor; And my soul from out that shadow that lies floating on the floor Shall be lifted - nevermore!

http://www.heise.de/ix/raven/Literature/Lore/TheRaven.html